Latest Research
View All PapersDavid Hirshleifer, Lin Peng, Qiguang Wang, Weichen Zhang, Xiaoyan Zhang • 2025
This paper studies how investors use generative AI in discussions across two major investing social media platforms with distinct governance and user bases: Seeking Alpha and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets. We document sharp cross-platform differences in adoption and market outcomes. On Seeking Alpha, AI adoption arises when information is scarce or contributors cover unfamiliar stocks; it is associated with more informative retail order flows, reduced user disagreement, and narrower bid-ask spreads. On WallStreetBets, AI adoption rises following surges in retail buying and is linked to sentiment contagion. Adoption is also followed by higher abnormal trading volume and volatility, wider spreads, and lottery-like return distributions. These results indicate that the adoption of AI and its relation to market outcomes are shaped by the institutional and behavioral context in which it is deployed.
Baixiao Liu, Glades McKenzie • 2025
Employing a novel dataset of 304,071 U.S. news articles covering 44 countries, we investigate the impact of U.S. media-driven narratives of foreign countries on the cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity of U.S. firms. We find that media narratives significantly affect the M&A decisions of corporate managers and corresponding investor reactions. The effect is driven by negative narratives while positive narratives have no impact. Specifically, a more negative narrative toward a foreign country leads U.S. firms to be more likely to abandon previously initiated M&A attempts, less likely to initiate cross-border M&As within that country and elicits more negative stock market reactions to initiated M&As within that country. Distinct from the informational content of news coverage, we provide evidence that negative narratives per se influence M&A decisions, indicating that media-driven narratives of foreign countries shape both corporate and investor behavior in international markets.
Perception Matters: The Public's Perception of the SEC and Engagement in Financial Markets
Austin Moss, Jackie Wegner • 2025
We examine whether public perception of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) influences engagement with U.S. financial markets by developing a novel measure of SEC perception derived from tweets mentioning the SEC. Using this measure, we first document considerable time-series variation in the public's views of the primary financial market regulator; they hold a positive, neutral, and negative perception 29%, 58%, and 13% of the time, respectively. Then we examine the influence of SEC perception on the general public's engagementoperationalized with retail investor trading activities-with the stock market. We find that retail trading activity is significantly associated with SEC perception: daily retail turnover is 3.6% higher during periods of positive perception and 3.4% lower during periods of negative perception, relative to neutral periods. This relationship is more pronounced for firms where SEC oversight is particularly important-small firms and those with low institutional ownership-and when there is greater consensus in public perception. We also find that SEC perception influences retail trading behavior around earnings announcements: their trading volume is positively associated with SEC perception, and they rely more heavily on earnings information during periods of positive perception, consistent with enhanced perceived credibility of SEC-regulated disclosures. Collectively, our results highlight that the public's perception of the SEC shapes market engagement and information usage.
Published Papers
View All PublishedInformation Flows in Trading Networks
Stefan Huber, Edward M. Watts, Christina Zhu • 2025
We study the informational value of trading networks in over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Using detailed transaction-level data from the corporate bond market, we show that investors with larger dealer networks make superior trading decisions before changes in credit fundamentals and yield better risk-adjusted performance. We trace these investors' superior trading decisions to trading connections where dealers are most likely to have access to novel credit-relevant information, supporting the interpretation that these investors obtain private information through their larger trading networks. Collectively, our evidence highlights the importance of trading relationships for investors' private information acquisition.
Political Polarization and Finance
Elisabeth Kempf, Margarita Tsoutsoura • 2024
We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and available data sources to infer individuals' partisan leanings. We then describe and discuss the empirical evidence. Our review suggests an economically large and often growing partisan gap in the financial decisions of households, corporate executives, and financial intermediaries. Partisan alignment between individuals explains team and financial relationship formation, with initial evidence suggesting that high levels of partisan homogeneity may be associated with economic costs. We conclude by proposing several promising directions for future research.
Books
View All BooksCronqvist, Pely • 2019 • Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance
Corporate finance is about understanding the determinants and consequences of the investment and financing policies of corporations. In a standard neoclassical profit maximization framework, rational agents, that is, managers, make corporate finance decisions on behalf of rational principals, that is, shareholders. Over the past two decades, there has been a rapidly growing interest in augmenting standard finance frameworks with novel insights from cognitive psychology, and more recently, social psychology and sociology. This emerging subfield in finance research has been dubbed behavioral corporate finance, which differentiates between rational and behavioral agents and principals. The presence of behavioral shareholders, that is, principals, may lead to market timing and catering behavior by rational managers. Such managers will opportunistically time the market and exploit mispricing by investing capital, issuing securities, or borrowing debt when costs of capital are low and shunning equity, divesting assets, repurchasing securities, and paying back debt when costs of capital are high. Rational managers will also incite mispricing, for example, cater to non-standard preferences of shareholders through earnings management or by transitioning their firms into an in-fashion category to boost the stock's price. The interaction of behavioral managers, that is, agents, with rational shareholders can also lead to distortions in corporate decision making. For example, managers may perceive fundamental values differently and systematically diverge from optimal decisions. Several personal traits, for example, overconfidence or narcissism, and environmental factors, for example, fatal natural disasters, shape behavioral managers' preferences and beliefs, short or long term. These factors may bias the value perception by managers and thus lead to inferior decision making. An extension of behavioral corporate finance is social corporate finance, where agents and principals do not make decisions in a vacuum but rather are embedded in a dynamic social environment. Since managers and shareholders take a social position within and across markets, social psychology and sociology can be useful to understand how social traits, states, and activities shape corporate decision making if an individual's psychology is not directly observable.
Shiller • 2019 • Narrative Economics
Stories people tell-about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin-can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril-and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior-what he calls "narrative economics"-may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.
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