Working Papers
View All Working Papers →Make American Markets Gyrate Again
Yuqi Zheng, Brian M. Lucey • 2025
This study looks at how Trump-related events affect financial markets by analyzing urgency scores and sentiment indicators based on topic models. We use all posts from Donald Trump's Truth Social account between 2022 and 2025 to see how his messages influence the volatility of S&P sector indices and other market indices. Three topic modeling methods are used: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Joint Sentiment-Topic (JST), and a reversed version of JST (rJST). These models help classify topics and measure sentiment at the same time. Using the improved rJST model, we find clear shifts in sentiment across different topics, especially in 2024 and 2025. We identify high-volatility periods as key events and examine how Trump's posts during these times lead to abnormal returns. Our results show that different sectors react differently. Sectors such as Utilities, Materials, Information Technology, Industrials, and Financials are especially sensitive. Negative comments often cause stronger and longer market reactions than positive ones. This shows that analyzing sentiment by topic helps explain investor behavior. A 10-day event window gives the clearest picture of these market effects.
Perception Matters: The Public's Perception of the SEC and Engagement in Financial Markets
Austin Moss, Jackie Wegner • 2025
We examine whether public perception of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) influences engagement with U.S. financial markets by developing a novel measure of SEC perception derived from tweets mentioning the SEC. Using this measure, we first document considerable time-series variation in the public's views of the primary financial market regulator; they hold a positive, neutral, and negative perception 29%, 58%, and 13% of the time, respectively. Then we examine the influence of SEC perception on the general public's engagementoperationalized with retail investor trading activities-with the stock market. We find that retail trading activity is significantly associated with SEC perception: daily retail turnover is 3.6% higher during periods of positive perception and 3.4% lower during periods of negative perception, relative to neutral periods. This relationship is more pronounced for firms where SEC oversight is particularly important-small firms and those with low institutional ownership-and when there is greater consensus in public perception. We also find that SEC perception influences retail trading behavior around earnings announcements: their trading volume is positively associated with SEC perception, and they rely more heavily on earnings information during periods of positive perception, consistent with enhanced perceived credibility of SEC-regulated disclosures. Collectively, our results highlight that the public's perception of the SEC shapes market engagement and information usage.
David Hirshleifer, Lin Peng, Qiguang Wang, Weichen Zhang, Xiaoyan Zhang • 2025
This paper studies how investors use generative AI in discussions across two major investing social media platforms with distinct governance and user bases: Seeking Alpha and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets. We document sharp cross-platform differences in adoption and market outcomes. On Seeking Alpha, AI adoption arises when information is scarce or contributors cover unfamiliar stocks; it is associated with more informative retail order flows, reduced user disagreement, and narrower bid-ask spreads. On WallStreetBets, AI adoption rises following surges in retail buying and is linked to sentiment contagion. Adoption is also followed by higher abnormal trading volume and volatility, wider spreads, and lottery-like return distributions. These results indicate that the adoption of AI and its relation to market outcomes are shaped by the institutional and behavioral context in which it is deployed.
Shrijata Chattopadhyay, Sameer Borwankar • 2025
We document the evolving corporate and investor responses to the politicization of social issues and its implications for firm value. Utilizing all tweets posted by S&P 500 companies between 2018 and 2023, we identify company-level characteristics associated with pro-LGBTQ+ tweets. We validate the passage of the Florida Parental Rights in Education Act (FPREA) in March 2022 as a salient political event that shifted both public and political sentiment against LGBTQ+ rights. Leveraging a Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) framework, we document a decline in the volume of pro-LGBTQ+ tweets following March 2022, primarily driven by a reduction in neutral-toned tweets. These results are further corroborated using a difference-indifferences (DID) approach. In an event-study setting, we find that pro-LGBTQ+ tweets were associated with positive abnormal stock returns prior to the politicization event, while the market reaction became muted thereafter. This differential effect is most pronounced among companies headquartered in Democratic-leaning states. Collectively, our findings highlight the strategic considerations firms face when navigating socio-political discourse, and underscore the importance of aligning public communication with shifting political and investor climates.
Published Papers
View All Published Papers →Bing Han, Haoyang Liu, Pengfei Sui • 2023
Using novel data of social interactions and individual trading records in the Bitcoin market, we document evidence of social learning which leads to sentiment contagion. Investors significantly update their beliefs about Bitcoin in the same direction of average peer sentiment although it is not informative about future price. Our findings indicate inefficiency in social learning, consistent with echo chamber effect and selective interpretation of signals. Moreover, social learning affects both individuals' trading decisions and aggregate market outcomes. We construct a novel measure for the intensity of sentiment contagion due to social learning. It significantly predicts Bitcoin volatility, volume and crash.
Christine Laudenbach, Stephan Siegel • 2024
We examine the effect of personal, two-way communication on the payment behavior of delinquent borrowers. Borrowers who speak with a randomly assigned bank agent are significantly more likely to successfully resolve the delinquency relative to borrowers who do not speak with a bank agent. Call characteristics related to the human touch of the call, such as the likeability of the agent's voice, significantly affect payment behavior. Borrowers who speak with a bank agent are also significantly less likely to become delinquent again. Our findings highlight the value of a human element in interactions between financial institutions and their customers.
Information Flows in Trading Networks
Stefan Huber, Edward M. Watts, Christina Zhu • 2025
We study the informational value of trading networks in over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Using detailed transaction-level data from the corporate bond market, we show that investors with larger dealer networks make superior trading decisions before changes in credit fundamentals and yield better risk-adjusted performance. We trace these investors' superior trading decisions to trading connections where dealers are most likely to have access to novel credit-relevant information, supporting the interpretation that these investors obtain private information through their larger trading networks. Collectively, our evidence highlights the importance of trading relationships for investors' private information acquisition.
Political Polarization and Finance
Elisabeth Kempf, Margarita Tsoutsoura • 2024
We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and available data sources to infer individuals' partisan leanings. We then describe and discuss the empirical evidence. Our review suggests an economically large and often growing partisan gap in the financial decisions of households, corporate executives, and financial intermediaries. Partisan alignment between individuals explains team and financial relationship formation, with initial evidence suggesting that high levels of partisan homogeneity may be associated with economic costs. We conclude by proposing several promising directions for future research.
Educating Investors about Dividends
Andreas Hackethal, Tobin Hanspal, Samuel M Hartzmark, Konstantin Bräuer • 2025
We educate investors about the benefits of dividend reinvestment and costs of misperceiving dividends as free income. The intervention increases planned dividend reinvestment in survey responses. Using trading records, we observe a causal increase in dividend reinvestment in the field of roughly 50 cents for every euro received. This holds relative to investors' prior behavior and various control samples. Investors who learned the most from the intervention update their trading the most. The results suggest the free dividends fallacy is a significant source of dividend demand. Our study demonstrates that simple, targeted, and focused educational interventions can affect investment behavior.
Laura Escobar, Alvaro Pedraza • 2023
We study the influence from social interactions on equity trading. Using unique data on stock transactions, we exploit the quasi-random assignment of students to classrooms in a financial training program to identify how peer experience affects investor behavior. We find that individuals react more to peer gains than to peer losses. Students enrolled in courses where peers have positive outcomes: (i) are more likely to start trading, (ii) purchase similar stocks as their classmates, and (iii) are disproportionally attracted to stocks with extreme returns. These stocks have low subsequent returns, and new investors reacting to peer gains underperform other investors.
Recommended Books
View All Books →Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance • 2019
Corporate finance is about understanding the determinants and consequences of the investment and financing policies of corporations. In a standard neoclassical profit maximization framework, rational agents, that is, managers, make corporate finance decisions on behalf of rational principals, that is, shareholders. Over the past two decades, there has been a rapidly growing interest in augmenting standard finance frameworks with novel insights from cognitive psychology, and more recently, social psychology and sociology. This emerging subfield in finance research has been dubbed behavioral corporate finance, which differentiates between rational and behavioral agents and principals. The presence of behavioral shareholders, that is, principals, may lead to market timing and catering behavior by rational managers. Such managers will opportunistically time the market and exploit mispricing by investing capital, issuing securities, or borrowing debt when costs of capital are low and shunning equity, divesting assets, repurchasing securities, and paying back debt when costs of capital are high. Rational managers will also incite mispricing, for example, cater to non-standard preferences of shareholders through earnings management or by transitioning their firms into an in-fashion category to boost the stock's price. The interaction of behavioral managers, that is, agents, with rational shareholders can also lead to distortions in corporate decision making. For example, managers may perceive fundamental values differently and systematically diverge from optimal decisions. Several personal traits, for example, overconfidence or narcissism, and environmental factors, for example, fatal natural disasters, shape behavioral managers' preferences and beliefs, short or long term. These factors may bias the value perception by managers and thus lead to inferior decision making. An extension of behavioral corporate finance is social corporate finance, where agents and principals do not make decisions in a vacuum but rather are embedded in a dynamic social environment. Since managers and shareholders take a social position within and across markets, social psychology and sociology can be useful to understand how social traits, states, and activities shape corporate decision making if an individual's psychology is not directly observable.
Narrative Economics • 2019
Stories people tell-about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin-can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril-and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior-what he calls "narrative economics"-may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.
Oxford Handbook of Networked Communication • 2020
Information sharing is a core human activity that catalyzes innovation and development. Recent advances in neuroscience reveal information about the psychological mechanisms that drive sharing, with a particular focus on self-relevance, social cognition, and subjective value. Based on these insights, this chapter proposes a structural model of the neurocognitive and psychological processes that drive sharing decisions, called value-based virality. Further, it maps existing knowledge about neural correlates and moderators of thought processes linked to individual and population-level sharing events and outcomes and suggests avenues for future investigation. Finally, the chapter discusses the potential of the neuroscience of information sharing to interact productively with other methodological traditions such as computational social science. Initial neuroimaging studies of information sharing provide insights into psychological mechanisms that were previously inaccessible. With the development of more realistic experimental setups and multimethod designs, future efforts promise advances toward a unifying theory of why and how people share information.
Customer Analytics for Maximum Impact: Academic Insights and Business Use Cases • 2018
One of the biggest changes in the marketing landscape in recent years has been a shift toward fostering word-of-mouth (WOM) to let consumers advocate on a brand's behalf. Many marketing executives consider online WOM, which has increased dramatically in volume in recent years, one of the most effective forms of marketing. Every second, 6,000 tweets are posted on Twitter, and that volume is growing at around 30% per year. Similar patterns apply to other social media platforms such as Facebook, as well as to platforms that host costumer reviews. TripAdvisor and Yelp host 570 million and 142 million reviews, respectively, and are visited by 455 million and 188 million users each month. However, reliably measuring the impact of WOM on demand is subject to some unique challenges, and many marketing managers admit that measuring WOM effectiveness remains difficult. In this chapter, we outline the current state of the academic literature regarding the impact of online WOM on demand. We first outline measurement challenges in the realm of WOM and how they can be resolved. We then summarize recent findings on the effectiveness of WOM in two domains: customer reviews and online conversations about brands on platforms such as Twitter or other social media. The former are a type of activity that typically occur after consumption and that impose a specific structure (often a rating scale) on consumers' WOM. The latter instead are less structured and can take place before and/or after consumption. These two areas are sufficiently different and shall be treated separately.
Oxford Handbook of Social Network Analysis • 2020
We discuss social network analysis from the perspective of economics. We organize the presentation around the theme of externalities: the effects that one's behavior has on others' welfare. Externalities underlie the interdependencies that make networks interesting to social scientists. We discuss network formation, as well as interactions between peoples' behaviors within a given network, and the implications in a variety of settings. Finally, we highlight some empirical challenges inherent in the statistical analysis of network-based data.
Handbook of Communication Science and Biology • 2020
What are the psychological and neural processes that support successful information propagation between communicators and receivers? The current chapter draws upon recent contributions from neuroscience to focus on the role of mentalizing, or considering other people's mental states, as one factor that leads to successful social influence and information propagation. Across different contexts, messages that lead to information propagation are distinguished by higher levels of mentalizing in both communicators and receivers of influence. The chapter also highlights developmental, cultural, and social network factors that moderate the relationship between mentalizing and influence.