Learning from the Loudest: Do the Most Active Information Providers Sway Investors’ Equity Premium Expectations?
Abstract
Thispaperstudieshowretailinvestorsform-andcontinuallyreshape-theirbeliefsabout future stock returns. Far from being anchored solely in economic fundamentals or rational expectations, investor beliefs emerge here as the outcome of an interplay among competing voices in the information ecosystem. Harnessing a uniquely comprehensive dataset of survey- based return expectations, coupled with text analyses of analyst reports and financial shows aired on 42 local news channels, I find that the sheer volume and prominence of certain analyst forecasts decisively shift investors’ views on the equity risk premium. When widely visible outlets broadcast optimistic signals - particularly about earnings growth - retail ex- pectations surge in a way that is both large and enduring, persisting for months. In contrast, less trumpeted insights from “quiet” experts are roundly ignored by the investing public, even though they contain predictive power for market returns. Remarkably, this attention- driven learning dynamic holds across almost all demographic segments, from high-net-worth investors to novices with modest portfolios. My findings present a new framework for under- standing how pockets of information can powerfully amplify or dampen collective sentiment. By revealing how specific streams of market information tip the scales of investor belief, I illuminate a potent channel through which narratives, rather than strict fundamentals alone, shape price dynamics.