Partisan Expectations and Behavior in the U.S. Housing Market
Abstract
We study whether partisan alignment with the president shapes housing market ex- pectations, home purchase behaviors, and aggregate housing market outcomes in the United States. Survey evidence shows that individuals report more optimistic home buying expectations when their affiliated party controls the White House. We then create a novel dataset that links individual home purchase records to voter registration records for approximately 48 million registered voters in states Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, New York, and Ohio from 2010 to 2023. Repub- licans purchase more homes than Democrats in a given year. We find individuals whose party controls the White House purchase more homes. These partisan driven shifts in housing demand translate into aggregate housing market outcomes: po- litically aligned counties experience higher home purchase volumes, homeownership rates, and house prices but lower returns.